Favorable weather forecasts depressed crop futures Sunday night

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Weather news continues depressing crop futures. After firming at mid-week, the corn market turned downward Friday and resumed its slide Sunday night. Those losses large reflect forecasts for near-ideal Corn Belt weather, with current heat being followed by more mild, wet conditions. Bulls may have a hard time sustaining a bounce unless conditions deteriorate. September corn fell 4.75 cents to $3.665/bushel early Monday morning, while December lost 5.25 cents to $3.73.

The soy complex is also sliding. As in the corn market, forecasts for favorable weather through late July is depressing the soybean and product markets. They might prove firmer in the short-term, since August weather affects beans more than the yellow grain, but, again, life could prove difficult for bears until the weather forecasts change. August soybean futures dipped 4.75 cents to $11.72/bushel Sunday night, while November futures tumbled 13.25 cents to $10.72. August soyoil sagged 0.17 cents to 36.40 cents/pound and August soymeal sank $2.8 to $377.5/ton.

The wheat markets are feeling downward pressure as well. Wheat futures reacted strongly to Thursday’s Ukraine news, but slipped later that day and gave back all of the earlier gains and more on Friday. The muted governmental reaction to the news is probably undercutting prices, as well as the ideal short-term weather forecast. September CBOT wheat dropped 5.0 cents to $5.2725/bushel soon after sunrise Monday, while September KC wheat slid 4.5 cents to $6.2925/bushel, and September MWE wheat slumped 3.0 cents to $6.2725.

Cash firmness again supported cattle futures last Friday. Bearish summer expectations have recently weighed on cattle futures, but persistent cash market firmness rather clearly spurred renewed CME buying Thursday and Friday. On the other hand, big week-ending beef losses may bode ill for this week’s outlook. August live cattle jumped 0.97 cents to 151.62 cents/pound in late Friday action, while December climbed 0.70 cents to 154.55. Meanwhile, feeder cattle reversed sharp early gains despite big corn losses. August feeders rose just 0.05 cents to 211.65 cents/pound, and October added 0.20 to 212.55.

CME hogs traded quite mixed on Friday. Ideas that late-week cash market slippage presaged much more of the same seemingly weighed heavily upon nearby hog futures Friday. However, the December future led the deferred contracts higher, thereby suggesting traders are relatively optimistic about the longer-term outlook. August hog futures plunged 1.77 cents to 127.07 cents/pound at Friday’s close, while December bounced 0.70 cents to 103.60.

Cotton futures defied the bearish trend Sunday night. The cotton market lacked for fresh news over the weekend, but began the week firmly despite the losses in the other crop markets. That may reflect forecast dryness for Texas this week, since that region probably lacks subsoil moisture. December cotton rallied 0.36 cents to 68.10 cents per pound in early Monday trading, while March futures gained 0.30 to 68.69 cents/lb.


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