EIA expects global oil consumption to grow in 2014
Global Petroleum and Other Liquids Consumption
EIA estimates that global consumption grew by 1.2 million bbl/d in 2013, averaging 90.4 million bbl/d for the year. EIA expects global consumption to grow 1.2 million bbl/d in 2014 and 1.4 million bbl/d in 2015. Projected global oil-consumption-weighted real GDP, which increased by an estimated 2.3% in 2013, grows by 2.9% and 3.4% in 2014 and 2015, respectively.
Non-OECD countries account for all of the expected consumption growth in 2014 and nearly all of the growth in 2015. China is the leading contributor to projected global consumption growth, with consumption increasing by 400,000 bbl/d in 2014 and 430,000 bbl/d in 2015. However, China's economic and oil consumption growth rates have moderated compared with rates before 2012, when annual GDP growth exceeded 9% and oil consumption growth averaged almost 800,000 bbl/d from 2009 through 2011.
EIA expects lower OECD consumption in 2014, led by projected consumption declines in both Japan and Europe. EIA expects Japan's oil consumption to fall by an annual average of 150,000 bbl/d in 2014 and 2015, as the country continues to increase natural gas and coal consumption in the electricity sector and returns some nuclear power plants to service in the second half of 2014 and in 2015. EIA projects that OECD Europe's consumption, which fell by 100,000 bbl/d in 2013, will decline by 60,000 bbl/d in 2014 and then remain relatively flat in 2015. U.S. liquids consumption, which increased by 400,000 bbl/d in 2013, is expected to remain relatively flat in 2014 and then increase by 90,000 bbl/d in 2015.
Source: EIA – Short Term Energy Outlook
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