Dry weather puts late U.S. soy plantings in jeopardy
"If you stay dry for another two or three weeks, it becomes too late to double-crop the beans after wheat," said Mark Schultz, analyst with Northstar Commodity in Minneapolis.
" They need moisture in next three weeks, or double-crop beans on those acres could be at risk of not even being planted," Schultz said.
MOST DOUBLE-CROP ACRES SINCE 2008?
Double-crop soybeans have comprised between 3 and 9 percent of total U.S. soybean acreage for the past 20 years, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture data. USDA estimates the amount of double-cropped soybeans once a year in its June acreage report, deriving its number from farmer surveys.
The recent high was 2008, when farmers planted approximately 6.8 million acres to double-crop soybeans, representing 9 percent of all U.S. soybean planted acreage -- the highest percentage since 1996, and the most outright acres since 1984.
Spot CBOT soybean prices were near current levels in the spring of 2008 and touched an all-time high at $16.63 per bushel that summer. CBOT November soybean futures settled Friday at $13.75-1/2.
Analysts from Citigroup, Doane Advisory Services and Newedge USA expected double-crop soybeans in 2012 to comprise 7 to 8 percent of overall plantings, at close to 6 million acres. But others cautioned that the final total might fall short, regardless of what USDA projects next week.
"The (USDA) survey was taken as of June 1st, before a lot of the weather concern hit us, so farmers were likely still talking big double-cropping," ABN AMRO analyst Charlie Sernatinger said in a note to clients.
"But the revisionist theory of world history," Sernatinger said, "is that a half million of those double-crop acres will never go in the ground unless the skies open up and pour forth moisture." (Reporting by Julie Ingwersen; Editing by David Gregorio)
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