Declining corn yield may point to 2013 rationing
In his recent newsletter, he says feed and residual use is more difficult to estimate, demonstrated by the 550 million bushel swing from the same quarter from 2010 to 2011. He says his best calculation is feed and residual use for the past quarter being more than the 716 million bushels last year, pointing to June stocks at 3.1 billion bushels. And he said that would mean feed use for the year would be more than the 4.5 billion bushel USDA estimate.
Good concludes by saying, “The June 1 stocks estimates take on a little more importance this year due to the relatively tight year-ending inventories projected for both corn and soybeans, even though more early-harvested corn is expected this year. The surprises in recent corn stocks estimates also add some drama to the upcoming report.”
With the faltering corn yield, the impact will be felt on the supply available during the coming marketing year and it may be one billion bushels less than the early estimates due to drought conditions. Cornbelt yields are shifting rapidly downward. USDA next reports on June 29 the grain stocks on hand and the use trends, which may indicate fewer bushels available in late summer. Fewer bushels will be available in 2013, with rationing a possibility.
Source: FarmGate blog