Crop sector forecasts under different yield scenarios
With a lower yield of 775 pounds per acre and farmers harvesting only 75 percent of planted acreage, production is 13.44 million bales and ending stocks fall to just 2.0 million bales. Such tight stocks would push cotton prices up significantly. Under the “excellent” weather scenario production is near 18 million bales and stocks rise to 3.77 million bales. The result would be prices down near 60 cents per pound.
Crop production levels for 2014 can vary widely under different weather conditions and it is too early to know how this year will turn out. But the forecasts outlined here provide some estimates under reasonable yield scenarios. Next month, USDA will begin providing forecasts for the 2014/15 crop years. By then we will have more information about the planting season and spring and summer weather forecasts.
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