Crop markets reacted badly to the bearish acreage/stocks data

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Corn futures fell in reaction to the USDA reports. Monday’s Acreage reports seemed supportive of new-crop corn futures, since the result fell slightly short of forecasts. However, the June 1 Stocks result easily topped expectations and sent the whole complex lower. July corn dropped 17.25 cents to $4.2575/bushel soon after Monday’s midday release, while December lost 19.75 to $4.275.

The soy complex plummeted in response to the news. The grain stocks report stated June 1 stocks well above industry forecasts, which sent old crop soy futures tumbling, and the Acreage total blasted past all predictions. Thus, the whole soy complex posted huge post-report losses. July soybeans crashed 47.0 cents to $13.85/bushel in late Monday morning trading, while July soyoil plunged 0.94 cents to 39.04 cents/pound, and July soymeal plummeted $19.5 to $450.3/ton.

The wheat markets also dropped after the USDA data were published. The quarterly Grain Stocks report looked somewhat supportive of the golden grain markets, since stocks dipped below expectations. However, the wheat acreage figures topped pre-report estimates, thereby depressing the markets to varying degrees. July CBOT wheat futures fell 18.75 cents to $5.665/bushel shortly before lunchtime Monday, while July KCBT wheat slipped 1.25 cents to $7.2475, and September MWE futures sank 6.25 to $6.765.

Cattle traders apparently think cash prices have topped. Despite having cash and wholesale prices hit records last Friday, cattle futures proved surprisingly weak that day and again this morning. Traders likely believe the market has hit a short-term peak and will weaken through July. Feeder futures had tanked early, but rebounded as the crop markets dove. August cattle tumbled 0.67 cents to 150.52 cents/pound late Monday morning, while December sagged 0.50 to 154.05. Meanwhile, August feeder cattle rose 0.07 cents to 214.40 cents/pound, and October feeders skidded 0.02 to 216.25.

Hog futures soared in reaction to Friday’s USDA Hogs & Pigs report. A surprisingly small spring pig crop cut the hog population numbers on last Friday’s report. Thus, the fall 2014 contracts led the whole complex higher. Suspicions that the USDA overestimated summer supplies caused them to rally as well. August and December hog futures spiked the 3.0-cent daily limit to 132.82 and 98.60 cents/pound, respectively at midsession Monday.


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