Crop Progress report was mostly bearish for the crop markets

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The Crop Progress report depressed corn futures Monday night. The condition rating for the U.S. crop rose 1% to 76% good-to-excellent, which is the highest for mid-July since 1999. That certainly seems to justify increased bearishness about the late-2014 outlook. September corn slumped 3.0 cents to $3.785/bushel early Tuesday morning, while December edged 3.25 cents lower to $3.85.

The soy complex also declined in response to the condition ratings. Monday’s Crop Progress report stated current soybean conditions at 72% good-to-excellent, thereby marking a 20-year high for mid-July. The unchanged reading contrasted to a normal 2% decline last week, further illustrating the ideal weather now dominating the central U.S. August soybean futures fell 10.0 cents to $11.87/bushel Monday night and November futures sagged 5.5 cents to $10.8075. August soyoil sank 0.17 cents to 36.71 cents/pound, while August soymeal dipped $2.1 to $386.5/ton.

Crop condition ratings are weighing on the wheat markets as well. Monday’s late Crop Progress report indicated spring wheat ratings were unchanged last week, which departed from the traditional summer pattern of declining modestly. In addition, the winter wheat harvest is advancing rapidly, with Southern Plains combining essentially completed last week. Thus, traders pushed golden grain prices generally lower. September CBOT wheat slumped 3.5 cents to $5.3425/bushel in early Tuesday action, while September KC wheat skidded 2.25 cents to $6.44/bushel, but September MWE wheat inched down 0.25 cent to $6.39/bushel.

Cattle futures moved mostly higher Monday night. Bearish summer expectations weighed rather heavily upon cattle futures to start this week. However, while the afternoon beef report did indicate wholesale weakness, the decline was not particularly large. That probably explains the general rebound posted overnight. August live cattle bounced 0.45 cents to 148.25 cents/pound as Tuesday dawned over Chicago, while December added 0.17 cents to 152.42 cents. Meanwhile, August feeder cattle jumped 1.10 cents to 211.77 cents/pound, and October climbed 0.65 to 211.57.

Hog futures appear to be anticipating a downturn. Cash hog prices rose again Monday, thereby seeming to justify Monday’s broad rally. However, pork cutouts were called mixed to lower, thereby seemingly reigniting fears about reduced demand and lower late-summer prices. All but the expiring July contract are trading below the CME index. August hog futures dropped 0.50 cents to 129.85 cents/pound early Tuesday morning, and December lost 0.82 cents to 104.32 cents.


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