Corn stocks up but fall short of forecasts

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The USDA released the “Grain Stocks” report on Friday, and while corn stocks were up 30 percent from 2012, they dropped “well-below” forecasts. The report showed corn stored in all positions totaling 10.4 billion bushels.

"In addition to lower production, the stocks estimate implies much stronger feed and residual use for the Sep-Nov period," Doane Advisory Service said.

The trend did not continue with soybean stocks. The "Grain Stocks" report showed soybeans stored in all positions totaling 2.15 billion bushels, up 9 percent from 2012.

Another USDA released on Friday – the “World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates” report, showed a projected drop in U.S. feed grain supplies for 2013-2014 on reduced production estimates for corn and sorghum. Harvested area for corn is raised 436,000 acres, but the estimated yield is lowered 1.6 bushels per acre to 158.8, reducing production 64 million bushels to 13.9 billion.

Projected corn use for 2013-2014 was raised with feed and residue use project 100 million bushels higher. Corn used to produce ethanol was also raised by 50 million bushels, reflecting strong weekly ethanol production, a reduction in expected sorghum use for ethanol and a higher forecast for 2014 gasoline consumption.

“A 50-million-bushel reduction in other food, seed, and industrial use offsets the increase in use for ethanol. Corn ending stocks for 2013/14 are projected 161 million bushels lower at 1.6 billion. The projected 2013/14 season-average farm price for corn is unchanged at the midpoint with the range narrowed to $4.10 to $4.70 per bushel,” the WASDE said.

Globally, world corn trade for 2013-2014 is lowered with a 2.0-million-ton reduction in imports expected for China. The recent rejects of U.S. corn shipments by China and larger domestic corn supplies in the country are expected to limit imports during the 2013-2014 marketing year.

The WASDE also showed a larger crop for soybeans being offset by reductions in other oilseed production, such as sunflower seed and canola.

Soybean production is estimated at 3.289 billion bushels, up 31 million bushels based on increased yields and harvested area. The soybean yield is estimated at 43.3 bushels per acre, up 0.3 bushels from the previous estimate.

Soybean exports are increased by 20 million bushels to 1.495 billion bushels, reflecting record shipments during the first quarter of the marketing year and strong sales through December.

Click here to read the “Grain Stocks” or “World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates” reports.

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