Corn prices weakened ahead of WASDE report

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Corn prices weakened in morning trade ahead of the release of the July WASDE. In that report, USDA revised the 2013/14 ending stocks up to 1.246 billion bushels from 1.146 billion last month. The new-crop ending stocks are now forecast at 1.801 billion compared to 1.726 billion last month. Favorable weather outlooks for corn pollination also weighed on the market. USDA maintained the yield forecast at 165.3 bu/a. USDA increased its forecast for global corn ending stocks for 2014/15 to 188.0 mmt from 182.65 mmt last month. Shortly after the release of the crop report, September futures traded down 9 1/4 cents at $3.77 and December futures traded down 9 cents at $3.83 3/4.

Soybean prices plunged following the release of the July WASDE. In that report, USDA boosted the production forecast to a record 3.800 billion bushels, far above last month at 3.635 billion. The ending stocks forecast for 2013/14 was revised to 140 million bushels from last month at 125 million. For the new crop, the forecast increased from 325 million to 415 million. The old-crop market sees its way to enough supplies to make it to the next harvest. Basically, the market is giving up remaining premium very rapidly. Shortly after the release of the crop report, August futures traded down 60 cents at $11.72 3/4 and November futures traded down 15 cents at $10.78.

Wheat futures were trading sharply lower ahead of the monthly WASDE and the full wheat crop production report. The crop estimate is up 50 million bushels from last month at 1.992 billion. Exports are expected to be off sharply year-over-year. Lower prices have yet to kick up demand, so the market keeps working lower in search of sales. In the report, USDA revised its 2014/15 ending stocks forecast to 660 million bushels from 574 million last month. Exports are forecast down to 900 million from 1182 million last year. September CBOT wheat was down 17 1/2 cents to $5.31/bushel, while September MGE wheat was down 8 1/2 cents to $6.32 1/2/bushel and September KC wheat was down 9 3/4 cents to $6.375/bushel.

Cattle futures have turned lower at midday after a mixed start. August futures have plunged 8 cents/pound this week as a wave a profit-taking from the trading funds and speculative sectors hit the market. The selling pressure was triggered as futures fell below near-term chart support levels which sparked additional selling. Cash cattle traded at $156 in Nebraska, down $1 to $2 from Wednesday and down $2 from last week. In Kansas, fed cattle traded at $156, down $2 from last week while Texas cattle were $2 to $3 lower to $155 to $156. The Choice cutout was up again on Thursday, climbing $1.60/cwt to $252.17, another new high. Even with the lower cash trade, futures are at a steep discount to the cash market. August live cattle are 1.35 cents lower to 146.80 cents/pound while December is 1.40 cents lower to 151.00 cents. Meanwhile, August feeder cattle are 2.77 cents lower to 207.82 cents/pound.

Hog futures were mostly lower as the cattle market provided spillover impacts on the hogs market. Wholesale losses caused the sustained slippage in Chicago prices. The cash markets seemingly peaked at the extreme high recently and the industry now expects some downward adjustment from that peak as demand started to retreat, which probably sparked some short covering actions. August hog futures were down 0.25 cents at 127.7 cents/pound and December was down 1.45 cents to 102.5 cents.


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