Coolest fall temperatures to remain focused in Central U.S.
WSI (Weather Services International) has issued its latest forecast for the September-November period. The forecast indicates below-normal temperatures will be prevalent in the central U.S., with above-normal temperatures expected in the western and eastern thirds of the country. The most significant positive temperature anomalies will be again found in the Pacific Northwest. The WSI seasonal outlooks reference a standard 30-year normal (1981-2010).
According to WSI Chief Meteorologist Dr. Todd Crawford: "August has been another relatively cool month across most of the central and eastern US, although we are currently in the midst of what we think will be a brief warmer period as we approach the end of the month. As Labor Day approaches, it appears that the sub-seasonal weather drivers will cycle around so that cooler-than-normal temperatures are favored again, especially across the north-central US. Further, the various models that we use suggest that this will be the general pattern for much of the fall, with the central US at greatest risk for below-normal temperatures. Finally, although much of the data needed to make a successful winter forecast is not yet available, the early indications suggest that a colder winter is favored across much of the central and eastern US. We will continue to integrate the latest data sets ahead of our first official winter forecast map in September."
In September, WSI sees the monthly breakdown as:
Northeast* - Warmer than normal
Southeast* - Warmer than normal
North Central * - Cooler than normal
South Central* - Warmer than normal
Northwest* - Warmer than normal
Southwest* - Warmer than normal
According to Paul Flemming, Director of Power & Gas at ESAI Power LLC: "In September, moderate temperatures in most regions and cooler-than-normal temperatures across large portions of the Midwest should moderate late-summer demand and help natural-gas inventories close the ongoing deficit to last year's storage levels. Power prices should be moderate in most regions however much warmer conditions are expected in California and the Northwest. Increased probabilities of late-season heat events in California are bullish for power prices in that region."
In October, WSI forecasts:
Northeast - Cooler than normal
Southeast - Warmer than normal
North Central - Warmer than normal
South Central - Cooler than normal
Northwest - Warmer than normal
Southwest - Cooler than normal, except southern California
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