Can yields rebound in 2013?
The purpose of the analysis was to see how yields bounced back following years with poor crops. But the analysis also showed some interesting changes in trend yields. It is true that the calculated trend yield can change significantly depending on what time frame is used. For this analysis, we stuck close to the decade delineation for the trend calculation.
Using this approach, the data show a slowdown in trend yield growth from the 1960s to the 1970s to the 1980s. Then the pace of growth in trend yields turns up again in the 1990s, rising further in the 2000s. Based on the data from 2000 through 2010, the national average U.S. corn yield is increasing at a rate of about 2.2 bushels per acre per year, and the trend would put the yield for 2013 at about 165 bushels per acre. Adding in the data for 2011 would cause the trend yield for 2013 to be lower.