Calculations for March 1 corn stocks estimate
“Some of the seasonal shift in feed and residual use of corn may be associated with high corn prices and increased feeding of other grains, particularly wheat, during the summer quarter,” Good said. “The shift in some years, particularly 2011-12, may also be associated with early harvest and the resulting shift in calculated feed and residual use from the summer quarter into the fall quarter. If those factors do explain some of the shift, feed and residual use during the fourth quarter of the current marketing year might be larger than in recent years. Corn prices are low relative to other feed ingredients, particularly wheat, and it appears that the 2014 crop will not be planted and harvested particularly early in the Midwest. The percentage of feed and residual use of corn during the first half of the current marketing year might be expected to be smaller than the 74 percent in recent years. The impact of PED-V (Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea Virus) on the number of hogs fed during the last half of the year, however, could also impact the seasonal pattern of corn feeding,” he said.
Good said that if the USDA’s 5.3-billion-bushel projection of feed and residual use of corn for the year is correct, and 70 percent was used during the first half of the year, use during the second quarter of the year would have totaled 1.284 billion bushels. Based on Census Bureau estimates for December 2013 and January 2014 and USDA export inspection estimates through February 2014, corn exports during the quarter were likely near 396 million bushels. Based on estimates of ethanol production during the quarter, corn used for ethanol production was likely near 1.265 billion bushels. Corn used in other domestic food and industrial processing should have been near 340 million bushels, resulting in a total use of 3.285 billion bushels. With Dec. 1 stocks of 10.426 billion bushels and imports during the quarter of about 6 million bushels, these calculations point to March 1 stocks of 7.147 billion bushels.
“Given the large amount of uncertainty about the potential seasonal pattern of feed and residual use of corn, a stocks estimate that varied from the calculation presented here could still support the USDA projection of 5.3 billion bushels of use for the year,” Good said. “The market will have to decide if the magnitude of use during the first half of the year is a reasonable percentage of the USDA projection for the year or if the projection will need to be changed.”
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