Brazil and EU corn boost global 2012/13 production

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World coarse grain production in 2012/13 is forecast up 1.1 million tons this month to 1,124.5 million, with increases for corn more than offsetting reduced prospects for sorghum and barley.

Brazil’s corn production is projected up 1.5 million tons to 74.0 million. The firstcrop corn harvest is ongoing, while second-crop planting is basically complete. On April 9, the Brazilian Government reported a reduction in first crop corn area harvested, with an increase in yields that boosted first-crop production. Also, second-crop corn area was increased, basically offsetting the first crop area reduction. Good moisture conditions were generally prevalent for second-crop plantings, with favorable early seeding in Mato Grosso Do Sul. However, the normal rainfall pattern across much of the second crop corn area, especially in Mato Grosso and Goias, is for a sharp drop in rainfall sometime during April or early May, truncating corn yields. This month the USDA forecast of Brazil’s corn yields are increased to reflect the first-crop yields revealed in Brazil’s Government surveys and confirmed by weather data and satellite imagery. However, average corn yields are projected to remain below a year earlier, when exceptionally good late rains boosted second crop yields to record levels.

Late upward revisions to 2012/13 corn production estimates for several EU countries boosted production 1.4 million tons this month to 56.1 million. Spain reported corn production up 0.5 million tons to 4.1 million, with harvested area 10 percent above the previous estimate and average yield boosted 4 percent. Hungary also reported corn production up 0.5 million tons from earlier estimates based on increased area harvested for grain and less for silage. Poland’s corn production is reported up 0.4 million tons to a record 4.0 million based on increased reported yields.

Russia’s corn production is boosted 0.2 million tons to a record 8.2 million based mostly on higher area included in final harvest reports. Ecuador’s corn production is up 0.1 million tons to 1.0 million, due more to area (up 9 percent) than yield (up 3 percent). Increased reported corn area boosted Thai corn production 0.1 million tons to 4.6 million. For Indonesia, good reported yields increased corn production 0.1 million tons to 9.0 million.

South Africa’s corn production prospects for 2012/13 are cut 0.5 million tons to 12.5 million. Persistent heat and below-normal rainfall in western and central corn areas more than offset increased irrigation in several States and favorable rains to the east. Based on information from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) Post, Vietnam’s 2012/13 corn production is reduced 0.5 million tons to 4.8 million, with almost as large a reduction for 2011/12. Lower area and yields are reported for both years. Serbia’s 2012/13 corn crop is reduced 0.3 million tons to 3.5 million as damage caused by last summer’s drought is reportedly more severe than previously thought. Chile reported 2012/13 corn yields only matching the previous year, trimming production 0.1 million tons. The Philippines and Colombia have corn area down slightly, lowering production nearly 0.1 million tons each. There is a smaller decline reported for corn production in Japan.

World sorghum production for 2012/13 is reduced 0.6 million tons this month to 58.2 million tons. China’s sorghum area for 2011/12 and 2012/13 is down significantly from previous estimates, and yields are also reduced, cutting production in 2012/13 by 0.65 million tons to 2.0 million. There is also a small increase in area and production for Mexico. Global 2012/13 barley production is reduced slightly due to a 0.2-million-ton decline for Algeria and a small reduction for Serbia.

Increased beginning stocks help boost supplies

World 2012/13 coarse grain supplies are forecast up 1.6 million tons this month, supported by a 0.5-million-ton increase in beginning stocks. South Africa’s corn beginning stocks are up 0.3 million tons to 3.7 million as 2011/12 corn exports failed to reach previous expectations. For Serbia, increased 2011/12 corn production and reduced industrial and food use combine to boost 2012/13 beginning stocks 0.2 million tons. Colombia’s corn imports are revised up slightly each year back to 2006/07, reflecting Paraguay’s export data and boosting 2012/13 beginning stocks 0.1 million tons. Turkey’s 2011/12 corn feed use is trimmed 0.1 million tons, boosting stocks. There are smaller increases in 2012/13 beginning stocks for Argentina, Chile, Venezuela, and Paraguay. Partly offsetting these increases are reduced 2012/13 beginning stocks for China’s sorghum, Vietnam’s corn, and Brazil’s corn.

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