Ag markets proved quite mixed again Friday morning

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An increased production forecast may be depressing corn futures. The corn market slipped Thursday night, then moved lower in response to news that the International Grain Council had boosted its global production forecast 4.0 million tonnes to 973 million. Nearby futures also seem to be failing at technical resistance. September corn sank 5.0 cents to $3.5675/bushel around midsession Friday, while December dropped 6.5 to $3.6275.

The soy complex posted divergent moves Friday morning. Old-crop demand seemed to boost the expiring bean contract this morning, but nearby meal didn’t follow. New crop beans are under pressure, whereas meal quotes have edged upward. Meanwhile, losses posted in Asian palm oil prices apparently triggered a fresh breakdown in the soyoil pit. September soybean futures vaulted 9.75 cents to $10.835/bushel just before lunchtime Friday, while November futures slumped 6.0 cents to $10.2275. September soyoil plunged 0.61 cents to 32.03 cents/pound, whereas September soymeal declined $1.8 to $431.3/ton.

A larger IBC forecast is also weighing on the wheat markets. There has been little fresh news about the Ukraine-Russia situation, which may be undercutting Thursday’s late rally. In addition, the IGC also boosted its 2014 global wheat production forecast 11.0 million to 713 million tonnes. Thus, wheat futures have moved mostly lower this morning. September CBOT wheat fell 7.75 cents to $5.4875/bushel in late Friday morning trading, while September KC wheat dove 11.0 cents to $6.24/bushel, but September MWE wheat rose 5.25 to $6.1725.

Cattle traders still seem to expect firming cash bids. Although wholesale prices proved quite weak again Thursday, CME futures are rallying rather strongly. The CME surge very likely reflects increased chances of a relatively steady result to this week’s cash trading. October live cattle futures inched up 0.10 cents to 150.20 cents/pound late Friday morning, while December futures added 0.17 to 152.87. Meanwhile, September feeder futures lifted 0.47 to 217.62 and November futures advanced 0.70 to 213.62.

Hog traders are clearly expecting a short-term cash bounce. Although cash hog prices remained weak Thursday, pork cutout values rebounded modestly from Wednesday’s big losses. They continued rising at midsession Friday, thereby encouraging bullish traders to look for much more of the same in early September. October hogs soared 2.95 cents to 98.42 cents/pound as the lunch hour loomed Friday, while December leapt 2.15 to 92.52.


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