Ag markets posted divergent moves again Monday morning

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DDG news sent corn futures lower Monday morning. Current weather forecasts continue pointing to ideal U.S. conditions, which is weighing upon corn futures. However, Sunday night news that China has stopped issuing import permits for U.S. distillers grains apparently exaggerated the early losses. July corn dove 12.25 cents to $4.4675/bushel in early Monday action, while December lost 11.25 cents to $4.465.

The soy complex proved surprisingly strong in early trading. New crop soy futures continue performing very well despite widespread suspicions that the fall harvest will prove very large. There is some talk of demand shifting from old crop, but that isn’t at all assured. Meanwhile, traders seemed to decide that recent pressure on old crop prices was overdone. The fact that nearby beans and meal rebounded from early ddg-driven losses seemingly points in that direction. July soybeans bounced 4.5 cents to $14.615/bushel by late Monday morning, while July soyoil rallied 0.16 cents to 39.17 cents/pound, and July soymeal skidded $2.2 to $485.4/ton.

Dropping corn prices may be undercutting the wheat markets. Traders seemingly think current conditions are boosting production prospects for SRW wheat traded in Chicago, and doing less for HRW and spring wheat harvests, which might explain the relative strength of the KC and MWE markets. Technical selling may also be playing a part, but bears are probably reacting mainly to the big drop in corn futures. July CBOT wheat futures fell 9.75 cents to $6.085/bushel around midsession Monday, while July KCBT wheat slipped 2.75 cents to $7.3275 and July MWE futures slid 5.25 cents to $7.04.

Friday’s cash strength sparked fresh CME cattle gains. The cattle industry has been expecting a traditional drop in cash prices through spring, but country cattle prices actually rose last Friday afternoon. That news is almost surely powering today’s big CME advance. August cattle jumped 1.25 cents to 142.55 cents/pound late Monday morning, while December climbed 0.62 cents to 147.92. Meanwhile, August feeder cattle leapt 2.10 cents to 202.62 cents/pound, and October soared 2.45 to 203.27.

Hog futures proved surprisingly mixed around midsession Monday. Hog traders rather clearly expect a big summer price surge, as indicated by the last week’s contract highs in August futures. Today’s early wholesale strength likely encouraged such ideas, but CME futures actually proved quite mixed in late-morning trading. That suggests underlying doubts about the summer situation. August hog futures edged up 0.12 cents to 129.42 cents/pound as lunchtime loomed Monday, while December dipped 0.10 cents to 94.50.

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