Ag markets moved mostly lower after Tuesday's USDA reports

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Corn futures bounced on Tuesday’s production data. Today’s USDA Crop Production report stated the forthcoming corn crop at 14.032 billion bushels, which fell moderately below the average of analyst estimates. Global carryout on the WASDE report also fell short of expectations, thereby causing corn futures to take back a portion of early losses. September corn slipped 3.5 cents to $3.5325/bushel shortly after Tuesday’s reports were released, while December lost 4.75 to $3.635.

The soy complex fell in response to the USDA numbers. Although the U.S. soybean production and global carryout estimates on today’s reports fell short of industry forecasts and looked supportive of soybean futures, t soy complex reacted bearishly. That reflected larger domestic carryout figures for this year and next than were anticipated. Traders also think the USDA production numbers will grow on autumn reports. September soybean futures tumbled 17.75 cents to $10.9075/bushel around midsession Tuesday, while November futures fell 19.0 cents to $10.5425. September soyoil dropped 0.47 cents to 34.45 cents/pound, and September soymeal sagged $4.2 to $363.5/ton.

Wheat futures remained under pressure Tuesday. The USDA’s estimate of domestic wheat production slightly exceeded industry forecasts and its predicted global carryout figure for 2014/15 easily topped expectations. That latter figure seemed particularly negative. Thus, subsequent general wheat futures weakness actually seemed well warranted. September CBOT wheat slumped 9.0 cents to $5.375/bushel just before lunchtime Tuesday, while September KC wheat stumbled 8.5 cents to $6.1525/bushel, and September MWE wheat dipped 4.25 to $6.12.

Sliding wholesale prices are apparently depressing cattle futures. Beef prices declined modestly Monday and are probably expected by industry observers to continue declining over the short run. However, yesterday’s huge drop in pork prices, and the negative hog futures reaction are likely playing a big role in today’s drop in the cattle markets as well. October live cattle futures plunged 2.32 cents to 148.12 in Tuesday morning action, while December futures tumbled 1.70 cents to 149.55 cents/pound. Meanwhile, September feeder futures tanked 2.70 cents to 214.72 cents/pound and November futures dove 2.35 to 212.87.

Big pork losses sent hogs sharply lower. Cash hog prices continued their late decline Monday, but pork cutout values plummeted over 4.0 cents after having held up well late last week. Those developments, along with expectations for a seasonal production surge apparently sent hog futures drastically lower this morning. October hog futures crashed the 3.0-cent daily limit to 97.17 cents/pound by late Tuesday morning, while December plummeted 2.72 cents to 86.82.


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