Ag markets diverged Wednesday morning

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Big ethanol production may be boosting corn futures. Corn futures bounced from fresh five-month lows yesterday and remained strong overnight. Bulls were probably pleased as well by the weekly EIA report stating last week’s ethanol production at a record high (due to rising gasoline prices). July corn gained 4.0 cents to $4.4275/bushel by late Wednesday morning, while December added 1.75 cents to $4.4125.

News of a sizeable export sale is likely supporting nearby soy futures. Despite recent talk of reduced bean demand, the USDA announced this morning that 140,000 tonnes of 2013/14 beans had been sold to an unknown destination. Resurgent palm values are boosting the oil market, but new crop prices appear to be suffering from expectations for a big fall crop. July soybeans rebounded 9.25 cents to $14.075/bushel around midsession Wednesday, while July soyoil ran up 0.54 cents to 40.22 cents/pound, and July soymeal lifted $1.3 to $452.0/ton.

Kansas harvest data may be boosting the wheat markets. An early report from the Kansas Wheat Commission indicated low yields and harvester problems with short stalks and mud. That news very likely powered today’s sizeable Kansas City rally, as well as more moderate gains at the Chicago and Minneapolis exchanges. July CBOT wheat futures climbed 12.25 cents to $5.94/bushel shortly before lunchtime Wednesday, while July KCBT wheat jumped 23.75 cents to $7.3625 and July MWE futures surged 27.5 to $7.1125.

Bearish seasonal expectations are weighing on cattle futures. The Chicago cattle market seemed to lose its upward momentum Tuesday as traders anticipated traditional early-summer price weakness. Soaring beef supportive prices overnight, but bears returned in force this morning. August cattle fell 0.90 cents to 144.82 cents/pound in late Wednesday morning action, while December dove 1.95 to 148.85. Meanwhile, August and October feeder cattle future plummeted the daily 3-cent limit to 204.85 and 205.70 cents/pound, respectively.

CME hog futures are dropping despite supportive data. Tuesday’s cash and wholesale reports indicated across-the-board gains, but that seemingly did little to diminish the big losses posted last night. We suspect industry analysts have begun publishing bearishly construed estimates for the June 28 Hogs & Pigs report. On the other hand, one could argue that a technical bounce in now due. August hog futures tumbled 0.62 cents to 127.42 late Wednesday morning, while December plunged 1.47 cents to 93.37.


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