Ag markets are starting the week on a mixed footing

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Corn futures are following through on last week’s late gains. The corn market was clearly depressed by beneficial early-summer weather and huge fall harvest prospects for weeks, but seemed to post a significant low last week. Nearby futures bounced above short-term moving average resistance on Friday and are moving higher again this morning. September corn gained 3.5 cents to $3.6925/bushel Sunday night, while December climbed 3.0 to $3.80.

The soy complex is also high in early Monday trading. The soymeal market seems to be leading the whole soy complex higher at this point, especially after July’s NOPA crush report (issued Friday) was the largest in five years. Having nearby bean and meal futures overcome short-term technical resistance is also encouraging bulls. September soybean futures rallied 7.5 cents at $11.10/bushel early Monday morning, while November futures rose 2.0 cents to $10.54. September soyoil inched up 0.03 cents to 32.90 cents/pound, and September soymeal added $2.8 to $391.1/ton.

The wheat markets gave back a portion of Friday’s gains. Wheat futures rallied late last week as the industry worried about a Russian invasion of Ukraine and precipitated a shortage of wheat coming from the Black Sea region in the near future. In actuality, little seemed to happen in that area over the weekend, so traders appear to be reversing their positions. September CBOT wheat slid 4.75 cents to $5.465/bushel in early Monday trading, while September KC wheat dipped 3.25 cents to $6.165/bushel, and September MWE wheat sagged 1.75 to $6.1025.

Cattle futures posted a late-Friday surge. Cattle futures bounced late last week on news of emerging cash market stability. The news likely reflected relatively firm southern Plains trading. Concerns about further cash losses may limit this week’s upside potential. October live cattle futures bounced 0.40 cents to 147.75 cents/pound in late Friday trading, while December futures advanced 1.25 to 150.90 cents/pound. Meanwhile, September feeder futures leapt 2.05 cents to 215.10 cents/pound and November futures jumped 1.87 to 213.65.

CME hogs moved mostly higher Friday. Tumbling cash and wholesale prices had recently depressed CME futures, although the markets apparently stabilized Thursday. The spot markets proved quite weak again at noon Friday, but only the nearby October future ended the day lower. Traders seemingly think the mid-summer drop has largely run its course. October hogs ended Friday having dipped 0.30 cents to 94.95 cents/pound, while December rallied 1.30 cents to 89.05.

A fresh report of weak Chinese demand may be undercutting cotton futures. Although it wasn’t really news, a weekend report that July Chinese imports had fallen 17% annually is probably weighing on the cotton market to start the week. Nearby futures are also bumping up against moving average resistance. December cotton skidded 0.04 cents to 64.31 shortly after sunrise Monday, while March futures lost 0.14 cents to 65.11.


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