U.S. corn use expected to slip
Total U.S. corn use for 2011/12 is forecast down 340 million bushels to 13,160 million this month as a result of decreased exports, feed and residual use, and FSI use. FSI use is lowered 40 million bushels. Corn for fuel is lowered 50 million bushels, and use for “cereals and other” is reduced 5 million. However, high fructose corn syrup (HFCS), corn used for starch, and glucose/dextrose are each raised 5 million bushels. U.S. exports are reduced by 150 million bushels as high prices reduce demand and world feeders shift to more competitively priced wheat.
Total corn use for 2010/11 is forecast down 60 million bushels to 13,245 million bushels this month. Food, seed, and industrial use (FSI) is reduced 10 million bushels to 6,420 million bushels. Lower use for ethanol, down 30 million bushels to 5,020 million, is partially offset by increases on other FSI categories. HFCS is increased 10 million bushels to 520 million as a result of expected increased exports to Mexico and the year-to-year pace through the third quarter. Glucose/dextrose and starch are both raised 5 million bushels to 265 million and 260 million, respectively. U.S. exports for 2010/11 are reduced 50 million bushels to 1,825 million. Reductions in use leave ending stocks for 2010/11 up 60 million bushels compared with last month’s projection.
U.S. Census Bureau trade revisions included changes for calendar year 2010. In the 2009/10 marketing year, corn exports are lowered 7 million bushels to 1,980 million. FSI use is raised 22 million bushels to 5,961 million because of revisions to monthly ethanol production estimates by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Together, the revisions lower feed and residual use 15 million bushels to 5,125 million for 2009/10.
Corn prices received by farmers for 2011/12 are projected at $6.20-$7.20 per bushel, up 70 cents on both ends of the range this month. The marketing year average reflects higher prices for corn with tighter ending stocks and tight global feed grain supplies. The 2010/11 corn price range is narrowed $0.05 at each end for an estimated range of $5.20-$5.30 per bushel.