Afternoon Comments 08/20

Corn: Crop tour results again weighed on corn and soy futures. A privately sponsored tour of Corn Belt fields is yielding some very high forecasts for the fall harvest, thereby exerting fresh downward pressure upon new-crop corn and soy futures. The nearby corn contracts are threatening to fall decisively below short-term moving average support, which might spark more substantial losses. September corn closed 3.0 cents lower at $3.595/bushel Wednesday afternoon, while December sank 4.75 to $3.675.

                                    Cash Prices       
                             Aug 19  
Central Illinois             3.65
Omaha, NE                    3.59

Soybeans: The soy complex moved in surprising directions today. Spot market strength and vigorous demand once again supported nearby beans and meal Wednesday, whereas big harvest forecasts depressed new-crop prices. However, the soyoil market posted a big bounce, with no news apparently responsible for the move. September soybean futures skidded 0.5 cent to $11.1975/bushel in late Wednesday trading, while November futures fell 14.75 cents to $10.38. September soyoil rebounded 0.20 cents to 32.86 cents/pound, and September soymeal gained $2.8 to $402.6/ton.

                                    Cash Prices       
                             Aug 19  
Central Ill.                 12.58   
Memphis, TN                  11.54

Wheat: The wheat markets turned decidedly lower Wednesday. Although recent news has seemed somewhat supportive of wheat market prospects, futures proved unable to sustain their early-week rebound. Indeed, the fact that they seemed to fail at pivotal technical resistance associated with 40-day moving averages today may have set the stage for larger declines. September CBOT wheat tumbled 6.5 cents to $5.395/bushel at its Wednesday settlement, while September KC wheat dropped 5.75 cents to $6.1875/bushel, and September MWE wheat slumped 6.5 to $6.1025.

                                    Cash Prices       
                             Aug 19  
K.C. - HRW                   5.09    
STL - SRW                    5.08    
Mnpls. 14%                   7.99    
NE MT - durum                8.50

Cattle: Cattle futures bounced from midsession lows. Concerns about the demand outlook and its potentially negative impact on cattle prices apparently sparked a fresh dive in CME cattle prices this morning. The sharp drop seemingly implied further short-term losses, but futures rebounded substantially from their midsession nadir. That confused the technical picture. October live cattle futures dropped 1.82 cents to 145.40 cents/pound as Wednesday’s pit session ended, while December futures plunged 2.00 to 148.45 cents/pound. Meanwhile, September and November feeder futures collapsed the 3.0-cent daily limit to 211.25 and 209.55 cents/pound, respectively.

                                    Cash Prices       
                             Aug 18  
700-800 Steers (OK City)     223.47  
500-550 Steers (OK City)     273.91  
Fed Steers - Neb             155.00  
Cutout Values                        
Choice                       252.91  
Select                       243.91

Hogs: Hogs followed cattle lower. The ongoing breakdown in cash hog and wholesale pork values continued at noon Wednesday, thereby keeping pressure on CME futures despite discounts already built into Chicago prices. The breakdown in the cattle pit rather clearly exacerbated the hog/pork weakness as well. October hogs tanked by 2.32 cents to 92.50 cents/pound at Wednesday’s CME close, while December plummeted 2.20 cents to 86.42.

                                    Cash Prices       
                             Aug 19  
National Avg. Carcass        99.41   
Sioux Fall Pigs (50-60lbs)   103.90

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